Assignment: Write a brief (one or two page) response on whether this statistical evidence alone establishes a causal relationship between the ethnicity of the driver and an officer’s decision to initiate a stop. Base your response on the three causal rules as outlined below.
Does this statistical finding establish that the police officers actually knew the driver’s ethnicity prior to the stop? (temporal order)
Is there a reliable relationship between a driver’s ethnicity and the officer’s decision to stop? (correlation)
Are there alternative plausible explanations for this outcome, other than systemic discrimination based on ethnicity? (lack of alternative plausible explanations) Consider the following additional factors.
The baseline data indicating the racial and ethnic composition of the driving population (at risk of being stopped) is based on the residential population rather than an actual observation of the driving population.
About half of the employees that work at the largest employer in Bigton do not actually live in Bigton but commute to work from the nearby larger metropolitan area.
Police officers in Bigton are assigned to patrol beats on the basis of demand, e.g. calls for service or reported crime rates. More officers are assigned to patrol beats with higher demand for policing services.
Include in your response suggestions on how a subsequent researcher might successfully establish a causal relationship between a driver’s ethnicity and a police officers decision to initiate a traffic stop. Here again, use the causal rules in this portion of your response.
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