Probability Assignment

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Probability is used constantly in our lives. We rarely actually use numbers in our daily calculations but probability still controls much of our daily interactions.

Some examples:
1. My wife is always late. I would estimate that she is late perhaps 95% of the time. Based on this, I can plan events. One time I told her that the time we needed to arrive was one hour prior to the correct time. We arrived about 10 minutes early. This is a subjective probability where an estimate is based upon past experience. Although percents and probability are not exactly the same, we tend to use them in the same manner.

2. When I last went to Vegas, I played the poker machine. I am not much into gambling so I play the 25 cent play. I would have to determine the higher probability of winning given certain circumstances. For example, I might go for all hearts or three of a kind based upon this mental calculation (assuming four hearts of which one is the jack of hearts and the non-heart is a jack of diamonds). Based upon probability:

P(flush or all hearts) = 9/47 (the dealt card needs to be a heart, 47 cards remaining of which 9 are hearts) = 19.15%

P(three jacks) = 2/47 (the dealt card needs to be a jack, 47 cards remaining of which 2 are jacks) = 4.26%

This is assuming that you get a brand new deck each round of video poker. Most people choose to go for the three of a kind but the flush has a better chance.

Come up with at least two examples of probability in your life.

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